Heading into the NRL’s final three games for 2024, the average number of penalties conceded per match sits at 10.9. Add in the 5.5 set restarts awarded per match and the average total number of decisions heading the way of any given team sits at around 16.
However, as we are all well aware, the referees are now entering the conservative and cowardly zone where the incentive to blow the whistle reduces.
History tells us that the officials overseeing the contest prefer to take a back seat in the biggest matches of all, allowing the players to fight a little more grubbily and desperately than in the hell for leather of the home and away season.
We saw the beginnings of that phenomena last Friday night at Allianz Stadium when the Sharks hosted the Cowboys. Just four penalties were blown during the contest, with the Sharks undoubtedly miffed that just one came their way across a full 80 minutes.
In the game of rugby league, such a statistic is a simply disingenuous. No team can be validated to have been such a cleanskin, even with the referee looking to let the game flow where possible.
The application of the rules was a little more liberal in the other knock-out semi-final, with the Roosters wining the count over the Sea Eagles by 7-4.
Interestingly, in both games just one penalty was awarded for 10-metre infractions, in addition to a handful of set-restarts which occurred deep in the attacking zones of the teams with the ball in hand at the time.
What we can almost certainly expect this weekend, when the Storm face the Roosters and the Panthers take on the Sharks, is more of what we saw on Friday night. The big question is who that suits heading into the three matches that require more discipline, diligence and patience than any others during the season.
Interestingly, the Roosters (184), Sharks (161) and Panthers (147) sit in the top three when it comes to the total number of penalties conceded in 2024. The Storm have been far ‘better’ in terms of discipline, with just 129 conceded across 25 matches.
Victor Radley is sent to the sin bin by Ashley Klein. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
A school of thought could argue that the Roosters will therefore struggle when the pea ceases to be activated as often.
However, content to concede, concede and concede yet again in order to retain defensive shape and hamper attacks when under pressure, it might actually be that the Chooks get exactly what they want when the people in fluoro decide to take more of a back seat.
A low penalty account should allow Easts to dwell that extra half a second in the ruck, creep that extra metre or two into an obviously off-side position wider out and ultimately achieve the control they seek without the concession of a penalty.
The modern Chooks have won a premiership off the back of being the most penalised team in the competition and unless a referee this week or next decides to actually ping them for the obvious method they use in frequently infringing and pushing the limits, they could well do so again.
The more positive among us would argue that the Storm are well placed, not relying on infringing in the ruck and surrounds in order to achieve the control they desire. Sadly, such optimism is naïve.
If the Roosters are indeed allowed to get away with rugby league murder on Friday night, the Storm will almost certainly need to play more cynically and match the effort. In terms of being polished in that area, the Roosters do look to have the advantage heading into the fixture, albeit being somewhat restricted by injuries to quality players.
The Roosters are down a few troops but could still find a way to win in 2024. (Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
As for the Panthers and the Sharks, both have shown a clear desire to manage situations through the concession of penalties and the contest looms as a potentially low scoring affair should the anticipated grind take place. If the whistle is a rare sound on Saturday, the kicking game and defence will become the main features of the clash.
Every finals series has a few matches where the scores remain low, referees defer to the players and the grind takes over. In 2023 it was the Roosters and Sharks in a 13-12 win for the Chooks, before the Storm toppled them a week later by 18-13.
At least one of these preliminary finals will play out similarly, particularly if the refrees involved decide they do not want to be the determining factor in the result. That fundamentally changes the game of rugby league and some might argue that it is what finals football is all about.
I would prefer the game to be played under the same set of rules for the entire season. But hey, that’s just me. One can only imagine how liberal the rules may become this weekend when it comes to sin-bins, send-offs and kick blockers during the process of attempting a field goal.
If history tells us anything, it will be Rafferty’s rules and the team prepared to get into the trenches and push the referee to the brink will be extremely difficult to beat. That team looks to be the Roosters heading into the weekend.
Perhaps we should cheer against them, however that would mean siding with Melbourne Storm which is a very difficult thing to do.