Connor Bedard’s less-than-expected production this season had been easy to brush off because of his underlying numbers.
From his low shooting percentage to his high number of chances, there were clear reasons why there shouldn’t be any concern about his game. It seemed as if it was only a matter of time before he began cashing in on his opportunities for the Chicago Blackhawks.
But then, the opposite unexpectedly occurred. In Bedard’s last two games, not only was his goal production absent but so were the chances. He had one shot attempt, which wasn’t on net, in five-on-five play against the Dallas Stars on Thursday and then again just one shot attempt, which was on net, against the Minnesota Wild on Sunday.
This was that shot Sunday, which came after some sustained offensive zone time.
While two games may not be a significant sample size, Bedard’s lack of shots over even that short span is out of the ordinary. He hadn’t had fewer than two shot attempts in a game all season before Thursday and it’s just the third time in his 84-game career he’s been held to fewer than two shot attempts in consecutive games.
And then to pull the scope out wider, there is the larger issue that Bedard still isn’t producing at the rate expected in his second NHL season. He has three goals in 16 games and hasn’t scored in his last seven games.
Bedard certainly can sense his game is off. Even when he wasn’t scoring goals before, he was pleased at least with what he was creating. That’s no longer the case.
“You can look everywhere, but just feeling like I’m having more impact on the game,” Bedard said on Monday. “I felt like earlier in the year, I was making a lot of plays, pretty dangerous out there. Lately, I’ve been (making) less of an impact and not really making a difference, so hopefully I can contribute more.”
So, what is happening?
The competition may have had something to do with it. With the Stars having the last change, they consistently matched their line of Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven with Bedard’s line. Against that line, which included Lukas Reichel and Taylor Hall, the Stars had a 20-6 advantage in shot attempts, 9-3 in shots on goal and 1-0 in goals. Against the Wild, offense was tough to come by for most of the Blackhawks and Bedard’s line was no different. In Bedard’s 12:15 of five-on-five ice, the Wild led 11-3 in shot attempts, 5-2 in shots on goal and 1-0 in goals.
“One, it was a really good team yesterday, and it was a tight-checking game, all game,” Blackhawks coach Luke Richardson said, explaining Bedard’s limited chances. ” I think both teams have played a lot of hockey, a lot of road hockey, a lot of travel. I think it was just that chess match until we got the lead and they had to open it up a little bit and we might not have handled it as great as wanted to in the third, but they’re a good team. They came at you hard. That probably plays into a factor. I think you just have to play it simple sometimes. Even the most skilled guys have to just go up and down in straight lines and shoot pucks, and then you’re going to get your opportunities that way. … When you don’t have goals and you’re used to scoring goals, I think you have to simplify and just go straight lines and shoot pucks and get some rebounds and that pushes the defense back and then sometimes you have a little more room after that.”
Bedard’s linemates might factor into it, too. Reichel was bumped up to play with Bedard to start Thursday’s game. Hall was promoted to the top line, too. When that didn’t work, come Sunday, Bedard was put with Reichel and Nick Foligno. Bedard had an 18.16 on-ice expected goals percentage against the Stars and 18.8 against the Wild, his two lowest of the season according to Natural Stat Trick.
Giving Reichel a chance up the lineup made sense considering his recent play, but there is a learning curve to playing with different players. Reichel deferred to Bedard too often against the Stars and passed up open looks. Reichel also tended to go to the net when Bedard started to cycle in the offensive zone instead of presenting himself as an option. Reichel was better at the latter against the Wild.
This is one example from Thursday where Reichel barely looked at the net before he attempted a pass to Bedard.
Reichel has shown lately he may be able to center his own line, but the Blackhawks also don’t have many players with his speed who might be able to ignite Bedard if they can figure it out together.
Imagine if they can find ways to make plays like this convert consistently.
Richardson hinted Monday at shuffling Bedard’s line again, but Richardson has some time to decide this week with their next game not until Thursday. Richardson did acknowledge Bedard and Reichel were still feeling each other out.
“And I think that that’s been moving around a little bit, too, so different guys on your line, it’s hard to get the continuity,” Richardson said. “But we’re trying to get everybody in sync and sometimes we have to take someone off a line to help another line and sometimes that disrupts the flow of things as well. So, it’s not just Connor’s line, that’s every line. So, we’ll tinker around. We have a few days now to kind of figure that out before the road trip and again, we have to figure out a lineup that’s going to work better on the road because we don’t have the last change as well.”
Richardson has been trying a lot of different players with Bedard this season. Last season, Bedard had much more consistent linemates. Philipp Kurashev played with Bedard for 764:13 of Bedard’s 1043:09 five-on-five ice time. Foligno was with him for 377:13 and then the other linemates dropped off from there. This season, Bedard’s most frequent linemates have been Teuvo Teräväinen (139:01), Foligno (101:03), Kurashev (64:55), Reichel (43:42), Ryan Donato (38:45), Hall (32:37) and Ilya Mikheyev (21:12). Bedard’s possession and defensive analytics were better earlier in the season while playing with Teräväinen, but they weren’t creating much offense together and Richardson split them up.
The question becomes, is it on Bedard to make any combination work or should the combination fit Bedard? Probably a bit of both.
“It’s our job to do that, but as a player, you have to find a way to get pucks to the net, no matter who you play with and that’s your job and it’s our job to find who maybe works the best in whatever scenario,” Richardson said. “Kurshy probably had a slower start to the season than he would like. I know he did some video with the coaches this week and worked on the skills coach on some aspects of his game and I think he took a step last game. I think it wasn’t just his goal in overtime, I think his overall game is much better, so maybe that gets him back with Connor and even Teuvo and sometimes maybe Nick. I think there’s a rotation there depending on what we need against a certain team. And that might be a good thing, they might be excited to be back together and they had some good chemistry last year and some good success. So, it’s something definitely to look at, for sure.”
Bedard would love to create chemistry with consistent linemates but also understands there hasn’t been a combination that has worked perfectly this season.
“I guess you always want to, because that means you guys are doing well,” Bedard said. “But we’re trying a lot of stuff. We’ll see what clicks and then that will stick, obviously.”
As much as competition and linemates do matter, Bedard’s production also obviously falls on him. Great players make plays regardless of who they’re on the ice with and against. They take what the defense is giving them. They play to their linemates’ strengths. They bend the game in their favor.
Bedard isn’t much for divulging what he thinks needs to be fixed, but he does accept his own accountability.
“Definitely not playing great the last little bit,” Bedard said. “I’ll try to be better.”
As Foligno mentioned, the Blackhawks still need Bedard to factor into the team game when the offense isn’t pouring.
“That’s part of being a young player,” Foligno said. “We all go through it, whether you’re young or old, but it’s just understanding that it’s a hard league. What are you doing for the team if you are tight-checked? He’s a guy that’s used to producing and I get it — we need him to. That’s the role that he’s in, and there’s a lot of guys on our team that have to find a way to produce if we’re going to have success. He’s finding his way through that. The biggest thing is the rest of your team has to be where it won’t hurt the team, either.
“We talked about it as a group for a lot of guys: If you’re not scoring, what are you doing to help the team in other aspects? That’s winning hockey and that’s where you grow as a player. Connor is learning that right now. He’s going to find his way on the scoresheet; it’s a matter of time. The more you force it, the worse it gets sometimes. But he has enough ability and understanding and is smart enough to know he’s going to put himself in good positions to get goals and points for our team, but make sure the other side of your game — when it isn’t there — is real strong. That’s where we need to grow as a group so we can get on this little winning streak as a group.”
(Photo of Connor Bedard and Stars defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin: Jerome Miron / USA Today)