Heraclitus once said, “no man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man”. It has been famous for centuries, as a warning for anyone trying to repeat the same idea and reject evolution.
The shock outcome of the 2024 US presidential election has not just been about a surprise comeback, but also the question: why are so many people unable to change and adapt? Donald Trump, a felon whose reputation has been stained by many issues, is now back in the White House.
Yet the reason for Trump’s triumphant display in the election lies entirely with his supporters – many remain committed to supporting his cause no matter how dangerous it looks, no matter the affront to democracy. For these supporters, they think Trump is a saint or a god. Perhaps they don’t care about the consequences they have been complicit in creating, under the guise of ‘making America great again’. Perhaps one day they will come to realise they have voted in a monster. By then, it could be too late.
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Many similar stories have happened and still happen in the footballing world. Chelsea hoped that José Mourinho would revitalise the club, and a memorable first tenure was promising. But the second era was far from it. Despite a League Cup and a Premier League title, his magic in Europe waned as Chelsea could not overcome Atlético Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, and the club crumbled in the final year of his tenure.
Inter Milan tried with Roberto Mancini again in 2014, since Mancini had won consecutive domestic titles a decade ago; only for the reunion to prove to be an unhappy one as Mancini left with nothing left to offer.
Roberto Mancini. (Photo by Claudio Villa/Getty Images)
Some oddballs exist, a famous one being Carlo Ancelotti’s successes with Real Madrid in two separate tenures, but this was because Ancelotti learnt to adapt and change, and because Real has substantial financial muscle.
But while club football still provides some oddballs, the case is far less regular with national teams. Turkey, for instance, reappointed Senol Gunes, who led the Turks to third place in the 2002 FIFA World Cup, with expectations that he would bring magic to the Turkish team again. However, Gunes’ second term was a disaster, with Turkey eliminated from the Euro 2020 group stages. They also struggled in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers and he would later be dismissed when the Turks realised they had failed to evolve.
The United States expected Bruce Arena, who was at the centre of the US’ dream run in 2002, would salvage the USMNT after catastrophic openers to Mexico and Costa Rica, only for Arena’s men to implode as the US failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. Arena tearfully admitted his guilt and left the post in shame.
For Brazil, the five-time world champions expected Luiz Felipe Scolari, who won the 2002 World Cup, to guide them to World Cup victory at home. Instead, Brazil’s 2014 World Cup run was mired with controversies before falling victim to their worst-ever defeat: a historic 7-1 loss to eventual winners Germany that caused a major crisis in Brazilian confidence and Scolari’s departure.
The Aussies probably knew this the hard way, thanks to Graham Arnold. Arnold first led the Socceroos in the 2007 AFC Asian Cup, Australia’s first major tournament since joining the AFC. The Socceroos struggled before losing to Japan in Hanoi after a tense penalty shootout in the last eight. Arnold would come back to the job in 2018, replacing Dutchman Bert van Marwijk. But his second tenure proved to be just as lame as the first, with the Socceroos also crashing out in the quarter-finals in two consecutive Asian Cups, while the team produced an equally poor World Cup qualification performance, and would have missed out on a place in Qatar had it not been for Andrew Redmayne’s heroics.
To be frank, Graham Arnold contributed very little to the miraculous 2022 FIFA World Cup run. While Australia reached the last sixteen for only the second time, it was greatly aided by the malaises of their opponents, Tunisia and Denmark. Tunisia have been Africa’s underachiever, due to their consistent World Cup qualification and role as one of Africa’s best teams; whereas Denmark, a historically strong opponent, had evaporated from their magical Euro 2020 light. Once reality knocked on the door, it hit differently: catastrophic 2026 WCQ openers where the Socceroos lost embarrassingly to Bahrain at home and drew with Indonesia away.
Welcome Tony Popovic as Arnie’s successor. Popa’s coaching record included winning the only AFC Champions League for Australia, and that appeared enough. Popa steered the Socceroos back on course with an emphatic 3-1 comeback win against China before holding Japan to an admirable 1-1 draw away, the first time since 2013 Japan failed to beat Australia at home. Worries remain still, with Popa’s conservative nature food for sceptics. For now, the storm has temporarily ceased and the calm has returned for a while.
Tony Popovic. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Yet the November fixtures will be crucial. The Aussies will welcome Saudi Arabia at home before seeking redemption away against Bahrain. The Socceroos have met the Saudis in two previous WCQ cycles, ending with Saudi Arabia sending Australia to playoffs both times. However, this Saudi team isn’t the same Saudi team of the previous cycles; Saudi Arabia are in a regression of form, with the Green Falcons producing a poor display throughout the third round. Their only victory was against China, a game that showed Saudi Arabia’s exceptional resilience in the face of suffering one-man advantage, but that’s it. Saudi Arabia have had three home World Cup qualifiers and won none of them. Two embarrassing draws to Indonesia and Bahrain before a humiliating 2-0 loss to Japan in Jeddah shattered Saudi Arabia’s self-invincibility image.
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The shockingly awful home results led to the dismissal of Roberto Mancini and, surprisingly, Saudi Arabia rehired Hervé Renard. The Frenchman has been described as one of the finest managers in history, but he is also criticised for inconsistency. This is because Renard’s teams are generally successful at the beginning but tend to drift to failure in the end. It’s the reason why Renard’s tenures with many national teams, although memorable, are short-lived. Zambia, Morocco and France women’s side know all too well the fleeting success under Renard’s reign. His lack of tactical acumen and his selection options are often seen as weak points that undermine his earlier triumphs.
But, like Trump for American politics, Renard has a strange aura that can hypnotise people to support him, no matter how flawed he is. He remains a loved figure in Zambia, Ivory Coast and Morocco. This aura, still, is the strongest in Saudi Arabia. Saudis really believe that Renard’s return means their saviour is back and their fans are now painting an even brighter future with Renard in charge, including winning the 2027 Asian Cup, which Saudi Arabia will host. A lot of Saudis even believed that taking first place from Japan is now possible under Renard, as well as advancing past the group stages of the World Cup.
Like populism in politics, football fanaticism tends to ignite strength and determination, even if sometimes truly delusional. Considering Renard’s motivational skills, it’s a real concern. Of course, Renard isn’t Trump and football isn’t politics, but if Trump’s toxic gospels can still hypnotise people to support his toxic agenda, the same can apply with Renard’s Saudi players.
Can Australia respond? Yes, but the Socceroos need to exploit Saudi Arabia’s weak points and capitalise on them. Renard has already regarded his return as the continuation of the previous contract, so it’s easy to see he will want to finish what he has started. But his complete lack of tactical acumen, and his poor game reading skills, mean the key to overcoming Renard is between the lines.
As much as Saudi Arabia is determined, it will be their arrogance that will prove their downfall. From this arrogance, breaking Renard’s aura is possible. Renard is a great influencer but he is not invincible. Saudi Arabia have many good players like Salem Al-Dawsari and Mohammed Al-Owais, but they’re not supermen. Australia can break their opposition by building necessary counters. Trust can be fostered among players, and Popa needs to be the man to encourage this. Smart tactics and surprise elements will need to be trumpeted, precisely because Renard is not a smart tactician in my estimation.
It’s clear beating Saudi Arabia is hard, but it is not impossible. No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man. Hervé Renard has stepped into the Saudi Arabian camp twice, but the current Green Falcons have no connection with the previous squad. The chance is here now and the Socceroos must seize it.