With the final buzzer of the WNBA regular season Thursday night, the WNBA playoff odds are set — for now. The New York Liberty (+120) secured the No. 1 seed and are favorites to win the WNBA title this year, with the rival Las Vegas Aces (+225) right behind and the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx (+240) completing a tier of three at the top of the odds.
After that, the odds drop off significantly, with the Connecticut Sun (+800) followed by the Indiana Fever (+3000), Seattle Storm (+4000), Phoenix Mercury (+15000) and Atlanta Dream (+25000).
The stakes and storylines are thrilling for this year’s playoffs, fitting for a league that is exploding in popularity and delivering for new and old fans alike. The 2023 MVP Breanna Stewart and the Liberty are aiming to get the city’s first-ever title after falling to the Aces in last year’s finals. Meanwhile, reigning Finals MVP A’ja Wilson and the Aces are chasing a three-peat, the first since 2000 when the league was in just its fourth season.
And, of course, the name on everyone’s lips: Caitlin Clark will make her WNBA Playoff debut with her No. 6-seed Indiana Fever.
Here’s the bracket for the first round:
- No. 8 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 1 New York Liberty
- No. 7 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx
- No. 6 Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun
- No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces
Here is look at the WNBA Playoffs from WNBA staff writers Sabreena Merchant and Ben Pickman.
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WNBA championship odds
The Liberty locked in the No. 1 seed on Tuesday in an 87-71 win over the Washington Mystics, giving New York home-court advantage through the playoffs. The Liberty are 32-8 and have led the league for almost the entire season.
A post-Olympics surge by the Lynx (30-10 overall, 13-2 since the Olympic break) kept the Liberty from locking the playoffs before Tuesday. Before the final bracket was set, the Lynx were at +1000 odds and have come down to +800.
Meanwhile, the defending champion Aces (27-13) are experienced with that clutch factor you need to surge for the playoffs.
So, who do our experts like to win?
Picks for WNBA Champion
Pickman: New York Liberty — The Liberty enter the postseason playing far from their best basketball. However, New York has been the league’s best team in the regular season overall, is abundantly talented, has home-court advantage throughout the playoffs and worked all season to overcome last year’s WNBA Finals scars. It’s not easy to flip a switch come playoffs, but New York knows it has to elevate its level and has the talent to do so.
Merchant: Minnesota Lynx — Assuming the Lynx can get past the Sun, they’ve matched up well against the Liberty and Aces all season.
WNBA Finals MVP odds
We have another tier of three at the top of the odds for Finals MVP: A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart are seen as most likely to make it to the Finals with their team and then absolutely show out.
Wilson is having an all-time great season, never seen before in this league (or officially in the NBA): most points (1,021), most rebounds (451) and most blocked shots (98) in a season. It would be the third time in league history a player has won back-to-back Finals MVPs, with Cynthia Cooper winning four in 1997-2000 and Lisa Leslie in 2001-2002.
Lynx star Collier is having the kind of league-defining performance that is only overshadowed slightly because of Wilson’s all-time season. After helping the United States win gold at the Olympics, she has averaged 20.7 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists.
Stewart, the 2023 regular-season MVP winner, won Finals MVP on the Seattle Storm in 2018 and 2020. Stewart has averaged 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists this season.
Finals MVP picks
Pickman: Brenna Stewart — She’s been the best and most consistent player on the league’s best team throughout the regular season. A perennial winner, Stewart’s loss in last year’s Finals marked the first major defeat of her career. She will avenge that this fall. If you want more of a value play, however, look to Jonquel Jones at +1200 odds. Jones, who herself is a former league MVP, was New York’s most consistent and dominant player during last year’s playoffs and could be again during this year’s run.
Merchant: Kayla McBride — The best player on the winning team doesn’t always snag this award (see: 2021 and 2022), and it’s easy to imagine McBride having a couple of big shooting nights that propel Minnesota.
WNBA Playoffs first-round series
No. 8 Atlanta Dream vs. No. 1 New York Liberty
- Game 1: 1 p.m. ET, Sunday
- How to watch: ESPN
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Pickman’s pick: New York in two — Throw out the regular season finale loss against the Dream. It would be a monumental upset if New York lost in the first round.
Merchant’s pick: New York in two.
No. 7 Phoenix Mercury vs. No. 2 Minnesota Lynx
- Game 1: 5 p.m. ET, Sunday
- How to watch: ESPN
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Pickman: Minnesota in two — The Lynx have been the WNBA’s best team since the All-Star break, dropping just one game since play resumed. There’s no reason to suspect a struggling Phoenix team will bring significant hiccups.
Merchant: Minnesota in two.
No. 6 Indiana Fever vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun
- Game 1: 3 p.m. ET, Sunday
- How to watch: ABC
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Pickman: Sun in two. The Sun won the season series over Indiana 3-1, but all three of their wins came within the first five weeks of the season when Indiana was still figuring itself out. What pace the series is played at will go a long way in determining the winner of this matchup. Indiana could be the first lower seed to upset a higher seed in the new format, but it’s also hard to bet against the Sun’s playoff experience.
Merchant: Connecticut in two. We’re still waiting on the first first-round upset in this format, and though Indiana has been feisty post-break and beat Connecticut in the most recent meeting, the Sun also have a five-year streak of making the WNBA semifinals on the line. The bet here is the streak stays alive.
No. 5 Seattle Storm vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces
- Game 1: 10 p.m. ET, Sunday
- How to watch: ESPN
- Streaming: Fubo (try for free)
Pickman: Another matchup loaded with talent, the Aces have consistently elevated their level of play in the postseason. Continuity will make a difference as Las Vegas goes for its three-peat.
Merchant: Las Vegas in two.
More WNBA coverage
How big should ESPN go on Caitlin Clark during WNBA playoffs? Our experts debate
Playoff matchups set as Atlanta Dream claim final spot: How does postseason format work?
Awards and all-league team: A’ja Wilson leads the way, Caitlin Clark tops rookies
(Photo of A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)